| Author |
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Rich
Guest
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 Posted:
Fri Oct 14, 2005 4:40 am Post subject:
How long till DVD is dead? |
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Remember 8 track? Cassette killed it. How long did it take?
Vinyl was killed (vinylfiles need not respond) by CD in about
four years.
VHS was killed by DVD in the space of 4-5 years.
So, once Blu-HD-Ray-DVD is released, how long will
DVD persist? My guess is (owing to the numbers of DVD
machines, the acceptability of the format and the precarious
nature of the blu-ray, HD-DVD war, DVD should last another
8-10 years once the other two get released.
-Rich
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campu2.net
Guest
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| Posted:
Fri Oct 14, 2005 4:40 am Post subject:
Re: How long till DVD is dead? |
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Rich wrote:
| Quote: | Remember 8 track? Cassette killed it. How long did it take?
Vinyl was killed (vinylfiles need not respond) by CD in about
four years.
VHS was killed by DVD in the space of 4-5 years.
So, once Blu-HD-Ray-DVD is released, how long will
DVD persist? My guess is (owing to the numbers of DVD
machines, the acceptability of the format and the precarious
nature of the blu-ray, HD-DVD war, DVD should last another
8-10 years once the other two get released.
-Rich
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I assume that the HD players will still play regular DVDs.
(Just as DVD players play CDs).If this is the case,
standard DVDs should be around for many years.
I've replaced most of my VHS tapes with DVD. I don't plan
on replacing my DVDs with HD. Atleast, not in the near future.
----------------
Best Forums & Sites
http://campu2.net |
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Guest
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| Posted:
Fri Oct 14, 2005 1:02 pm Post subject:
Re: How long till DVD is dead? |
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So very hard to say. If they get this silly format war out of the way,
it could be sooner than you would think. The prices on HD sets keep
coming down. HD OTA seems to really be taking off, from an
availability standpoint. As more and more people buy HD sets, they're
going to want to take advantage of them.
Still, DVD has a lot of advantages:
1. Extreme market penetration. The most popular, most quickly accepted
media format of all time.
2. Reliability. The discs will likely last decades.
3. They look great on HDTV sets.
4. They will most certainly be cheaper than whichever HD format wins.
Part of DVD's quick acceptance was that the pricing was good right out
of the box. Maybe a little higher than VHS in the beginning, but
nowhere near the princely sums paid for Laserdiscs. I don't think the
studios will be that smart this time. And after being an LD owner, I
ain't anxious to pony up $40 for a movie with no extras just because
it's in HD, and I'm certainly not willing to pony up $125 or more for a
season set of a TV show. I ain't bought the X-Files on DVD yet because
the pricing sucks. I have, however, bought a lot of $14 movies and $40
TV seasons.
-beaumon |
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Morgan
Guest
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| Posted:
Fri Oct 14, 2005 10:07 pm Post subject:
Re: How long till DVD is dead? |
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"campu2.net" <campu2@hotmail.com> wrote in message
news:1129254974.198464.122870@z14g2000cwz.googlegroups.com...
| Quote: |
Rich wrote:
Remember 8 track? Cassette killed it. How long did it take?
Vinyl was killed (vinylfiles need not respond) by CD in about
four years.
VHS was killed by DVD in the space of 4-5 years.
So, once Blu-HD-Ray-DVD is released, how long will
DVD persist? My guess is (owing to the numbers of DVD
machines, the acceptability of the format and the precarious
nature of the blu-ray, HD-DVD war, DVD should last another
8-10 years once the other two get released.
-Rich
I assume that the HD players will still play regular DVDs.
(Just as DVD players play CDs).If this is the case,
standard DVDs should be around for many years.
I've replaced most of my VHS tapes with DVD. I don't plan
on replacing my DVDs with HD. Atleast, not in the near future.
----------------
Best Forums & Sites
http://campu2.net
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I've never been under the assumption that HD-DVD or Blu-Ray was going to
take over for standard DVDs. I still don't think enough people have an HDTV
to warrant either format becoming more dominant than regular DVDs. Yes,
more people have HDTV's but they only have 1, not 1 in every room. I have a
fairly large DVD collection (500 DVDs) and I can't see myself replacing but
a handful of titles--only about 10 (and that's being really generous). And
realistically, I wouldn't replace them as I'd still have the standard
version around for portability purposes--there's not going to be an HDTV or
HD-player everywhere I go. I think the future of DVD is pretty secure. I
think lots of people have more DVDs than they had VHS tapes, and their
willingness to part with them will be a much tougher fight when a new format
hits the market. I still only see HD-formats as a niche market. And I may
be totally wrong, but I think the general public is starting to grow weary
of new formats. I haven't experienced an HD disc so I can't say I know what
it's like, but I have and HDTV and (although I'm blown away by the clarity)
I can't see myself paying more for a movie just to get it in HD.
Morgan |
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AZ Nomad
Guest
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| Posted:
Fri Oct 14, 2005 10:45 pm Post subject:
Re: How long till DVD is dead? |
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On Fri, 14 Oct 2005 10:07:41 -0700, Morgan <morgan@johnandmorgan.com> wrote:
| Quote: | I've never been under the assumption that HD-DVD or Blu-Ray was going to
take over for standard DVDs. I still don't think enough people have an HDTV
to warrant either format becoming more dominant than regular DVDs. Yes,
more people have HDTV's but they only have 1, not 1 in every room. I have a
fairly large DVD collection (500 DVDs) and I can't see myself replacing but
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substitute LP for DVD and CD for HD-DVD/blueray.
However, IMNSHO HDTV is too little an improvement to dump DVDs or even
laserdiscs. It's only twice as sharp as the old crappy NTSC and still needs
to improve at least fivefold to even approach film quality.
When the next technology after HDTV comes along then I'll start replacing
my laserdiscs and DVDs. |
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Justin
Guest
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| Posted:
Fri Oct 14, 2005 11:04 pm Post subject:
Re: How long till DVD is dead? |
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AZ Nomad wrote on [Fri, 14 Oct 2005 17:45:43 GMT]:
| Quote: | On Fri, 14 Oct 2005 10:07:41 -0700, Morgan <morgan@johnandmorgan.com> wrote:
I've never been under the assumption that HD-DVD or Blu-Ray was going to
take over for standard DVDs. I still don't think enough people have an HDTV
to warrant either format becoming more dominant than regular DVDs. Yes,
more people have HDTV's but they only have 1, not 1 in every room. I have a
fairly large DVD collection (500 DVDs) and I can't see myself replacing but
substitute LP for DVD and CD for HD-DVD/blueray.
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Oh bullshit. LPs got scratches and skips and were huge and bulky. All
these families with DVD players in their minivans aren't going to be
switching to HD any time soon. There's still confusion about playing
DVDs in CD players, let alone the confusion that HD discs will add to
the mix. The general public won't upgrade unless they see a big benefit
to it. VHS->DVD had that, LP->CD had that. DVD->HD-DVD/Blu-Ray doesn't. |
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Kimba W. Lion
Guest
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| Posted:
Fri Oct 14, 2005 11:48 pm Post subject:
Re: How long till DVD is dead? |
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AZ Nomad <aznomad@PmunOgeBOX.com> wrote:
| Quote: | substitute LP for DVD and CD for HD-DVD/blueray.
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More like DVD=CD and HD-DVD/BluRay=SACD, IMO. |
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Jeff Rife
Guest
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| Posted:
Sat Oct 15, 2005 12:04 am Post subject:
Re: How long till DVD is dead? |
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Morgan (morgan@johnandmorgan.com) wrote in alt.video.dvd:
| Quote: | And
realistically, I wouldn't replace them as I'd still have the standard
version around for portability purposes--there's not going to be an HDTV or
HD-player everywhere I go.
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Then, too, if you don't have at least a 17" screen, HD really won't help
much at all.
--
Jeff Rife |
| http://www.nabs.net/Cartoons/Goals.gif |
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Jeff Rife
Guest
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| Posted:
Sat Oct 15, 2005 12:12 am Post subject:
Re: How long till DVD is dead? |
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AZ Nomad (aznomad@PmunOgeBOX.com) wrote in alt.video.dvd:
| Quote: | However, IMNSHO HDTV is too little an improvement to dump DVDs or even
laserdiscs.
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Then, you obviously haven't seen any HDTV. I can agree that "dumping" the
old stuff would be silly, but if the new discs and players were priced
the even close to DVDs, it'll be a no-brainer (assuming no "Internet
authorization" crap) to buy them for new releases. Other advantages to
the new discs might be full bitrate DTS for most movies, since the 1.4Mbps
of a DTS track is nothing compared to the 15-25Mbps of the movie itself.
| Quote: | It's only twice as sharp as the old crappy NTSC and still needs
to improve at least fivefold to even approach film quality.
|
I'm not sure where you learned to do math, but "old crappy NTSC" is about
480x360 for a 16:9 picture. DVD (which is *good* NTSC) is 720x480 (with
discs that are "enhanced for 16:9 TVs"). Both are interlaced.
HDTV on disc can be 1920x1080 and progressive scan. That's 12 times as
many pixels as "old crappy NTSC" and 6 times as many as DVD, plus you get
progressive scan.
--
Jeff Rife | Sam: How's life treatin' you, Norm?
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| Norm: Well, Sammy, it's not...so I sure
| hope you are. |
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AZ Nomad
Guest
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| Posted:
Sat Oct 15, 2005 12:57 am Post subject:
Re: How long till DVD is dead? |
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On Fri, 14 Oct 2005 15:12:26 -0400, Jeff Rife <wevsr@nabs.net> wrote:
| Quote: | AZ Nomad (aznomad@PmunOgeBOX.com) wrote in alt.video.dvd:
However, IMNSHO HDTV is too little an improvement to dump DVDs or even
laserdiscs.
Then, you obviously haven't seen any HDTV. I can agree that "dumping" the
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Or you've never seen a movie.
On a scale of 1 to 10 with 10 being a quality film and 1 being NTSC, HDTV is
at best a 3. HDTV is great only when compared to NTSC. |
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AZ Nomad
Guest
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| Posted:
Sat Oct 15, 2005 12:59 am Post subject:
Re: How long till DVD is dead? |
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On Fri, 14 Oct 2005 15:12:26 -0400, Jeff Rife <wevsr@nabs.net> wrote:
| Quote: | I'm not sure where you learned to do math, but "old crappy NTSC" is about
480x360 for a 16:9 picture. DVD (which is *good* NTSC) is 720x480 (with
discs that are "enhanced for 16:9 TVs"). Both are interlaced.
HDTV on disc can be 1920x1080 and progressive scan. That's 12 times as
many pixels as "old crappy NTSC" and 6 times as many as DVD, plus you get
progressive scan.
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That's only true if you take those pixels and stretch them along a line. |
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Jeff Rife
Guest
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| Posted:
Sat Oct 15, 2005 4:18 am Post subject:
Re: How long till DVD is dead? |
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AZ Nomad (aznomad@PmunOgeBOX.com) wrote in alt.video.dvd:
| Quote: | On Fri, 14 Oct 2005 15:12:26 -0400, Jeff Rife <wevsr@nabs.net> wrote:
AZ Nomad (aznomad@PmunOgeBOX.com) wrote in alt.video.dvd:
However, IMNSHO HDTV is too little an improvement to dump DVDs or even
laserdiscs.
Then, you obviously haven't seen any HDTV. I can agree that "dumping" the
Or you've never seen a movie.
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Well, of course I have. But I don't think either one of us have seen a
movie in our house that is projected from 35mm film. So, it's a moot
point.
| Quote: | On a scale of 1 to 10 with 10 being a quality film and 1 being NTSC, HDTV is
at best a 3. HDTV is great only when compared to NTSC.
|
Uh, huh. Right. At 1920x1080, it is not that far from the actual visible
resolution of the film in most movie theaters, and 1920x1080 is a pipe
dream in a lot of them. Then, too, there are movies that have only about
2000x1300 resolution in the first place, because that's the resolution
at which the special effects were done. For movies that get scanned in
after the final cut for digital color correction, you end up with even
lower resolution.
--
Jeff Rife |
| http://www.nabs.net/Cartoons/OverTheHedge/Workaholic.gif |
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Jeff Rife
Guest
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| Posted:
Sat Oct 15, 2005 4:19 am Post subject:
Re: How long till DVD is dead? |
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AZ Nomad (aznomad@PmunOgeBOX.com) wrote in alt.video.dvd:
| Quote: | HDTV on disc can be 1920x1080 and progressive scan. That's 12 times as
many pixels as "old crappy NTSC" and 6 times as many as DVD, plus you get
progressive scan.
That's only true if you take those pixels and stretch them along a line.
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I guess you don't actually understand "resolution" and how it's a 2D thing,
and how increasing either axis increases the perceived quality.
--
Jeff Rife | /"\ ASCII Ribbon Campaign
| \ / against HTML e-mail
| X and USENET posts
| / \ |
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Alpha
Guest
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| Posted:
Sat Oct 15, 2005 4:40 am Post subject:
Re: How long till DVD is dead? |
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"AZ Nomad" <aznomad@PmunOgeBOX.com> wrote in message
news:slrndl03h2.e7s.aznomad@ip70-176-155-130.ph.ph.cox.net...
| Quote: | On Fri, 14 Oct 2005 15:12:26 -0400, Jeff Rife <wevsr@nabs.net> wrote:
I'm not sure where you learned to do math, but "old crappy NTSC" is about
480x360 for a 16:9 picture. DVD (which is *good* NTSC) is 720x480 (with
discs that are "enhanced for 16:9 TVs"). Both are interlaced.
HDTV on disc can be 1920x1080 and progressive scan. That's 12 times as
many pixels as "old crappy NTSC" and 6 times as many as DVD, plus you get
progressive scan.
That's only true if you take those pixels and stretch them along a line.
|
This may be the stupidest attempt at an answer ever witnessed. Stupid. |
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Black Locust
Guest
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| Posted:
Sat Oct 15, 2005 4:40 am Post subject:
Re: How long till DVD is dead? |
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In article <1129276954.634831.14410@o13g2000cwo.googlegroups.com>,
lorincantrell@yahoo.com wrote:
| Quote: | Still, DVD has a lot of advantages:
1. Extreme market penetration. The most popular, most quickly accepted
media format of all time.
|
Very true. It would take a small miracle for either one of these HD
discs to be accepted even half as quickly as DVD was accepted. The
high-end users may jump on them real quickly, but even they will likely
hold off because of the format war. And I don't see the 'Average Joe'
consumer even considering HD discs for at least another 8 to 10 years,
if EVER...
| Quote: | 2. Reliability. The discs will likely last decades.
|
This is one of the key advantages DVD had over the then "King of Video"
VHS format when it launched in 1997. Many people were already beginning
to see their VHS collections start to deteriorate back then. These HD
formats will have no such advantage over DVD. A well cared for DVD
should be in as good condition 50 years from now as it was the day it
was purchased.
| Quote: | 3. They look great on HDTV sets.
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Yes. Even though DVDs aren't truly "high definition", they're still
optimized for HDTV's. Honestly, I've come across very few people that
aren't satisfied with the picture quality of DVD on HD sets.. You have
to be a pretty demanding bastard to look at a well mastered anamorphic
DVD on a player with progresssive scan output and say "That looks like
crap. I want something better!"
| Quote: | 4. They will most certainly be cheaper than whichever HD format wins.
Part of DVD's quick acceptance was that the pricing was good right out
of the box. Maybe a little higher than VHS in the beginning, but
nowhere near the princely sums paid for Laserdiscs.
|
Actually, DVD was priced better than VHS, even in the beginning.
Remember, the majority of VHS was priced for rental for the first 6
months or so. DVD had the luxury of never being subjected to the dreaded
"rental window."
"Our enemies are innovative and resourceful, and so are we.
They never stop thinking about new ways to harm our country and our people,
and neither do we." - George Dumbya Bush |
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