What effect will FMD have on DVD

Very little, as predicted from the beginning in this FAQ. Constellation 3D ran out of money in mid 2002. The various reports of fluorescent multilayer disc (FMD) causing the early death of DVD were wildly exaggerated and not founded in reality.

Fluorescent multilayer technology, which can be used in cards or discs, aims a laser at fluorescent dye, causing it to emit light. Since it doesn't depend on reflected laser light, it's possible to create many data layers (C3D prototyped 50 layers in its lab). It can use the same 650 nm laser as DVD, so FMD drives could be made to read DVDs. In June 2000, C3D announced a program to make FMDs with 25 GB per side that would be readable by DVD drives with a "minor and inexpensive modification." C3D later said players would be available by mid 2001. FMD was very cool technology, but it was new, with no track record, developed by one small company. DVD is based on decades of optical storage technology development by dozens of companies. The monumental task of changing entire production infrastructures over to a new format was too much for C3D, even with tens of millions of dollars and some large partners.