How is DVD doing

DVD did not take off quite as fast as some early predictions, but it has sold faster than videotape, CD, and laserdisc. In fact, before its third birthday in March 2000, DVD had become the most successful consumer electronics entertainment product ever.

Here are some predictions:

InfoTech (1995): Worldwide sales of DVD players in 1997 will be 800,000. Worldwide sales of DVD-ROM drives in 1997 will be 1.2 million, with sales of 39 million drives in 2000.
Toshiba (1996): 100,000 to 150,000 DVD-Video players will be sold in Japan between Nov. 1 and Dec. 31, 1996, and 750,000-1 million by Nov. 1, 1997. (Actual count of combined shipments by Matsushita, Pioneer, and Toshiba was 70,000 in Oct-Dec 1996.) Total worldwide DVD hardware market expected to reach 120 million units in the year 2000. Worldwide settop DVD player market will be 2 million units in the first year, with sales of 20 million in the year 2000.
Pioneer (1996): 400,000 DVD-Video players in 1996, 11 million by 2000. 100,000 DVD-Audio players in 1996, 4 million by 2000.
InfoTech (1996): 820,000 DVD-Video players in first year, 80 million by 2005.
CEMA (1997): 400,000 DVD-Video players in U.S. in 1997, 1 million in 1998.
Time-Warner (1996): 10 million DVD players in the U.S. by 2002.
Paul Kagan (1997): 800,000 DVD players in the U.S. in 1997, 10 million in 2000, and 40 million in 2006 (43% penetration). 5.6 million discs sold in 1997, 172 million discs in 2000, and 623 million in 2006.
C-Cube (1996): 1 million players and drives in 1997.
BASES: 3 million DVD-Video players sold in first year, 13 million sold in 6th year.
Dataquest (1997): over 33 million shipments of DVD players and drives by 2000.
Philips (1996): 25 million DVD-ROM drives worldwide by 2000 (10% of projected 250 million optical drives).
Pioneer (1996): 500,000 DVD-ROM drives sold in 1997, 54 million sold in 2000.
Toshiba (1996): 120 million DVD-ROM drives in 2000 (80% penetration of 100 million PCs). Toshiba says they will no longer make CD-ROM drives in 2000.
IDC (1997): 10 million DVD-ROM drives sold in 1997, 70 million sold in 2000 (surpassing CD-ROM), 118 million sold in 2001. Over 13% of all software available on DVD-ROM in 1998. DVD recordable drives more than 90% of combined CD/DVD recordable market in 2001.
AMI (1997): installed base of 7 million DVD-ROM drives by 2000.
Intel (1997): 70 million DVD-ROM drives by 1999 (sales will surpass CD-ROM drives in 1998).
SMD (1997): 100 million DVD-ROM/RAM drives shipped in 2000.
Microsoft (Peter Biddle, 1997): 15 million DVD PCs sold in 1998, 50 million DVD PCs sold in 1999.
Microsoft (Jim Taylor, 1998): installed base of 35 million DVD PCs in 1999.
Forrester Research (1997): U.S. base of 53 million DVD-equipped PCs by 2002. 5.2% of U.S. households (5 million) will have a DVD-V player in 2002; 2% will have a DVD-Audio player.
Yankee Group (Jan 1998): 650,000 DVD-Video players by 1998, 3.6 million by 2001. 19 million DVD-PCs by 2001.
InfoTech (Jan 1998): 20 million DVD-Video players worldwide in 2002, 58 million by 2005. 99 million DVD-ROM drives worldwide in 2005. No more than 500 DVD-ROM titles available by the end of 1998. About 80,000 DVD-ROM titles available by 2005.
Screen Digest (Dec 1998): 125,000 DVD-Video player in European homes in 1998, 485,000 in 1999, 1 million in 2000.
IRMA (Apr 2000): 12 million players will ship worldwide in 2000.
Baskerville (Apr 2000): Worldwide spending on DVD software will surpass that of VHS by 2003. There will be a worldwide installed based of 625 million DVD players by 2010 (55% of TV households).
Jon Peddie (Jun 2000): Almost 20 million DVD players will be sold in the U.S. in 2004.
IDC (July 2000): 70 million DVD players and drives will be sold by year's end.
Screen Digest (June 2000): European installed base of DVD-Video players (1998) 0.3m; (1999) 1.5m; (2000) 5.4m; (2003) 47.1m.
Japanese Electronics and Information Technologies Association (December 2000): 37 million DVD players worldwide by 2001.
DVD Entertainment Group (July 2001): Approximately 30 million DVD players sold in the U.S. by the end of 2001.
Understanding & Solutions (April 2002): DVD player penetration in the UK could grow to 70% by 2006 (CD player penetration reached only 50% in the same time period after launch).

Here's reality:

1997
- 349,000 DVD-Video players shipped in the U.S. (About 200,000 sold into homes.)
- 900 DVD-Video titles available in the U.S. Over 5 million copies shipped; about 2 million sold.
- Over 500,000 DVD-Video players shipped worldwide.
- Around 330,000 DVD-ROM drives shipped worldwide with about 1 million bundled DVD-ROM titles.
- 60 DVD-ROM titles (mostly bundled).
1998
- 1,089,000 DVD-Video players shipped in the U.S. (Installed base of 1,438,000.)
- 400 DVD-Video titles in Europe (135 movie and music titles).
- 3,000 DVD-Video titles in the U.S. (2000 movie and music titles).
- 7.2 million DVD-Video discs purchased.
1999
- 4,019,000 DVD-Video players shipped in the U.S. (Installed base of 5,457,000.)
- Over 6,300 DVD-Video titles in the U.S.
- About 26 million DVD-ROM drives worldwide.
- About 75 DVD-ROM titles available in the U.S.
2000
- 8.5 million DVD-Video players shipped in the U.S. (Installed base of 13,922,000.)
- About 46 million DVD-ROM drives worldwide.
- Over 10,000 DVD-Video titles available in the U.S.
- Belgium: 100 thousand installed base
- France: 1.2 million installed base
- Germany: 1.2 million installed base
- Italy: 360 thousand installed base
- Netherlands: 200 thousand installed base
- Spain: 300 thousand installed base
- Sweden: 120 thousand installed base
- Switzerland: 250 thousand installed base
- UK: 1 million installed base
2001
- 12.7 million DVD-Video players shipped in the U.S. (Installed base of 26,629,000.)
- Over 45 million DVD-ROM drives in the U.S.
- Over 90 million DVD-ROM drives worldwide.
- UK: 3 million installed base
2002
- 17 million DVD-Video players shipped in the U.S. (Installed base of 43,718,000.)
- Over 75 million DVD-ROM drives in the U.S.
- Over 140 million DVD-ROM drives worldwide.
2003 (fall)
- 16 million DVD-Video players shipped in the U.S. (Installed base of 73,300,000.)
- Over 27,000 DVD-Video titles available in the U.S.

For comparison, there were about 700 million audio CD players and 160 million CD-ROM drives worldwide in 1997. 1.2 billion CD-ROMs were shipped worldwide in 1997 from a base of about 46,000 different titles. There were about 80 million VCRs in the U.S. (89% of households) and about 400 million worldwide. 110,000 VCRs shipped in the first two years after release. Nearly 16 million VCRs were shipped in 1998. In 2000 there were about 270 million TVs in the U.S. and 1.3 billion worldwide. When DVD came out in 1997 there were under 3 million laserdisc players in the U.S.

For latest U.S. player sales statistics, see the CEA page at The Digital Bits. Other DVD statistics and forecasts can be found at IRMA, MediaLine, Twice. Industry analyses and forecasts can be purchased from Adams Media Research, Alexander & Associates, British Video Association, Cahners In-stat, Centris, Datamonitor, Dataquest, DVD Intelligence, eBrain, International Data Corporation (IDC), InfoTech, Jon Peddie Associates (JPA), Paul Kagan Associates, Screen Digest, SIMBA Information, Strategy Analytics, Understanding & Solutions and others.