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November 04, 2004

High-Def Battle Could Harm Format Future

Studios urged to pick one standard soon

Further tussles between proponents of the competing HD DVD and Blu-ray Disc formats could damage a market primed for high-definition content, argued Bob Chapek, president of Buena Vista Home Entertainment and the Digital Entertainment Group at last week's North American DVD Forum Conference here.

A total of 30 million homes are expected to be high-def ready by 2006, said Chapek. The figure will rise to more than 55 million homes with high-def TVs by 2008, according to In-Stat/MDR senior analyst Michelle Abraham.

With high-def creeping up at such a rapid pace, the industry must serve a consumer populace that is confused, "information-starved and hungry" to buy high-def DVD players, Chapek said. Only a small portion of these people are tech-savvy early adopters who have the willingness to sift through information on the competing standards, and the rest might become discouraged and turn to other mediums such as cable and satellite for their high-def needs, he said.

"We can't have two groups screaming disparate messages to consumers--this could make for a disappointing launch where neither side dominates," Chapek said. "Maybe we should be asking ourselves not how big our piece of the pie will be, but how big the pie will be."

DVD consultant and former Warner Home Video chief Warren Lieberfarb, a supporter of the arguably more market-ready HD DVD format, stressed the urgency of a quick decision. "Time marches by very fast in the digital world," he said. "Companies are missing opportunities and creating disasters for themselves.

"Waiting to make a decision until 2005 means that product is not in the market at a mass price point until 2007," and by then the industry could be facing flat standard-definition DVD sales, widespread piracy with methods like file-swapping and houses full of big-screen HD TV sets that make standard DVDs look bad, Lieberfarb said. To head off such a scenario, he believes that mass market price points must be achieved by 2006.

He might not have to wait long. Shortly before Halloween, Warner, Universal Studios Home Entertainment and Paramount Home Entertainment were close to announcing plans to begin releasing movies on HD DVD by the end of 2005, according to sources, although by press time no final agreement had been reached.

Draft press releases have been circulating through Hollywood for weeks, but last minute details or disagreements have kept all but Warner from signing on.

The agreements to release product on HD DVD would not be exclusive, however, leaving the studios free to also release movies on Blu-ray if that format is successful.

Posted by dvd software at November 4, 2004 08:02 AM

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